Dallas Real Estate Update - 2024

Comprehensive Real Estate Report: Dallas, Texas

Introduction

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the real estate landscape in Dallas, Texas, focusing on popular and fast-growing ZIP codes, crime rates and trends, economic and development plans, and demographic and population growth information. The findings are based on data from various sources, including Zillow, Opendoor, the Dallas Police Department, and economic forecasts.

1. Popular and Fast-Growing ZIP Codes

Dallas, Texas, has experienced significant growth in home prices, particularly in certain ZIP codes. According to data from Zillow, five of the top ten Texas ZIP codes with the highest increases in home prices from 2016 to 2023 are located in Dallas (DMagazine, 2023). These ZIP codes include 75215, 75216, and 75212, which are among the top five, with 75210 and 75203 at ninth and tenth, respectively. These areas are undergoing substantial growth or are on the cusp of growth due to various projects.

Further analysis by Opendoor highlights three ZIP codes in North Texas as some of the "neighborhoods where people bought homes the fastest in 2023" (Dallas Innovates, 2023). This indicates a strong demand for housing in these areas despite a year of high mortgage rates and cautious sellers.

Additional ZIP codes showing significant price increases include 75217, 75241, 75223, 75253, 75232, 75244, and 75227, with increases ranging from 166% to 170% (DMagazine, 2023). These areas are likely to continue seeing growth due to their increasing popularity and ongoing development projects.

More neighborhoods and zip codes information are here

2. Crime Rate and Trend

The Dallas Police Department reports an overall decrease in violent crime by 13.79% in 2023 compared to 2022 (DPD Beat, 2024). This includes a reduction in aggravated assaults by 17.3% and robberies by 7.7%. However, there was a 14.95% increase in murders in 2023. Despite this uptick in homicides, the overall trend in violent crime is downward, with significant decreases in shooting violent crime offenses, which went down by 20.99% from 2022 (DPD Beat, 2024).

The Dallas Police Department's Violent Crime Reduction Strategic Plan, implemented in May 2021, uses short, mid, and long-term strategies to combat violent crime and has contributed to the overall reduction in crime rates (DPD Beat, 2024).

3. Economy and Development Plans

The Texas economy, particularly in the Dallas region, has shown resilience and growth despite mixed signals in the broader economic landscape. The state has touted record-setting job growth, with Dallas-Fort Worth being selected as a hub for the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health, which is expected to catalyze growth in the health care sector (Dallas News, 2023).

Dallas-Fort Worth has also been a significant contributor to job creation, accounting for 10% of the net jobs created in the U.S. since February 2020 (Dallas News, 2023). The region's economy is forecast to fare better than its peers, with job growth and expansion expected to continue.

Development plans in Dallas include major downtown capital projects, such as the D2 subway and the spending of $1.1 billion in bond funding. Changes to the zoning code and the transformation of offices into apartments are also part of the city's development strategy (DMagazine, 2024).

4. Demographic and Population Growth Information

Dallas has been one of the fastest-growing major U.S. cities, with the Dallas-Fort Worth area experiencing the most significant population growth in Texas. The region's northern suburbs have seen the most considerable expansion, and by 2020, North Texas was projected to have 1-2 million more residents (World Population Review, 2023).

The demographic landscape is also changing, with Latinos expected to nearly equal the number of non-Hispanic whites shortly after 2020. The downtown Dallas and Fort Worth areas are predicted to see a surge in population, and the Asian population is expected to soar (World Population Review, 2023).

5. Business Incentives Attracting Businesses to Dallas

Dallas has implemented a variety of business incentives designed to attract and retain companies, thereby stimulating economic growth. The city's approach to economic incentives is multifaceted, including financial programs, tax abatements, and strategic partnerships with educational institutions.

Texas Enterprise Fund (TEF)
The Texas Enterprise Fund is a significant "deal-closing" fund used as a performance-based financial incentive tool. It targets projects that promise substantial job creation and capital investment, particularly when a Texas site competes with out-of-state options (Dallas News, 2021).

Tax Increment Financing (TIF) and Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE)
Dallas offers TIF districts and PACE financing to assist developers in realizing real estate projects within the city. These tools can be used to finance infrastructure improvements and encourage investment in designated areas (Dallas Economic Development, 2023).

Opportunity Zones
Dallas has designated Opportunity Zones that provide tax benefits for investments in distressed areas. These zones have led to significant development, including new housing, retail, and office spaces (Intown Plumbing TX, 2024).

Economic Development Grant and State Incentives
The Dallas City Council approved a $250,000 economic development grant for CBRE Group and nominated the company for $3.45 million in state economic incentives to support the construction of a new headquarters tower and job creation (Dallas News, 2021).

6. Job Growth and Employment Information

Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) has demonstrated remarkable job growth, positioning itself as a national leader in employment opportunities.

Job Creation Statistics
DFW created the second-most new jobs of any metro area in the country in 2023, with federal data showing 154,000 new jobs. The area has added nearly 600,000 jobs since November 2018, with significant growth in the Dallas-Irving-Plano area (NBC DFW, 2024; Dallas News, 2024).

Employment Growth Rate
The Dallas Fed reported a 5.3 percent increase in job growth for DFW in 2023, with employment growing at an annualized rate of 6.6 percent in January 2024 (Dallas Fed, 2023).

Unemployment Rates
DFW's unemployment rate remained stable at 3.4 percent, below the Texas and U.S. jobless rates of 3.9 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively (Dallas Fed, 2023).

7. Major Employers and New Business Moves to the Region

Dallas has a diverse array of major employers across various sectors, and recent years have seen significant relocations and expansions within the city.

Major Employers
- CBRE Group, a commercial real estate firm, has established its global headquarters in Dallas.
- Deloitte LLP, a professional services firm, plans to relocate its Dallas office to a new Uptown tower.
- Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are also planning to relocate thousands of workers to new offices north of downtown (Dallas News, 2024).

New Business Developments
- The construction of a $200 million CBRE headquarters tower in Dallas's Uptown neighborhood.
- A new 27-story tower at McKinney Avenue and Pearl Street developed by Trammell Crow Co.
- The East Quarter high-rise project by HKS, bringing 800,000 square feet of residential space by spring 2025 (The Real Deal, 2022).

Economic Boom and VC Ecosystem
Texas now ranks No. 4 among all states in capital raised, indicating a burgeoning venture capital ecosystem. The launch of the Hill Prizes by Lyda Hill Philanthropies and TAMEST will provide $2.5 million in funding to support Texas scientists (Dallas Innovates, 2023).

8. Large Residential and Commercial Development Projects

Dallas is set to witness a skyline transformation with several mixed-use projects that promise to bring a new vibrancy to the city's urban core and surrounding areas. Notable among these is the ambitious $2.5 billion mixed-use project known as The Central, spearheaded by De La Vega Development. This project is expected to encompass five million square feet, including an upscale multifamily tower, office space, a luxury hotel, shopping, restaurants, and a 3.5-acre park (The Real Deal, 2022). The Central is poised to redefine Uptown Dallas with its comprehensive blend of living, working, and leisure spaces.

Another significant project is the Newpark development planned for Canton Street, which will introduce a mix of residential, office, and retail spaces to the area south of Dallas City Hall. Hoque Global is also developing a mixed-use community next to the University of North Texas at Dallas campus, which will include hundreds of urban homes, commercial buildings, and green spaces (The Real Deal, 2022).

In Deep Ellum, The Epic II mixed-use tower project is set to house the 3,000-person Uber regional office, along with retail space. The Stack, a 16-story mixed-use project, is also under construction in the same neighborhood, featuring retail, restaurants, and Class AA office space (Dallas Innovates, 2022).

9. New Construction Communities and Builders

Dallas's new construction market is vibrant, with several communities and builders contributing to the city's growth. JPI, an Irving-based multi-family construction firm, is building Jefferson at Central, a 430-unit apartment complex located on North Carroll Avenue and Highway 75. This development is part of the larger Central project and is indicative of the type of upscale living options coming to Dallas (Dallas Innovates, 2022).

In addition to JPI, StreetLights Residential has commenced construction on a 351-unit apartment tower within The Central development. This high-rise is one of several new apartment projects the company is working on in Dallas, with a focus on Uptown and Deep Ellum districts (Dallas News, 2022).

10. Real Estate Listing Inventory and Price Trend Information

The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) housing market has shown resilience despite economic headwinds. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Dallas-Fort Worth builders increased new home starts by 50 percent year-over-year, with construction on 12,173 single-family homes. This surge brought the total new home starts in 2023 to more than 50,000, marking a 3 percent year-over-year increase and the second-most productive year on record in DFW (The Real Deal, 2024; Dallas News, 2024).

The market has also seen a record number of new homes sold, with more than 52,600 houses sold in 2023, up almost 4% from 2022. Sales were strongest in communities north of Dallas and Fort Worth (Dallas News, 2024).

Inventory levels have fluctuated, with a significant increase in 2022 followed by a decline at the start of 2023. This decline in inventory has contributed to a competitive market for home buyers. However, the moderation in mortgage rates is expected to stimulate sales in 2024 (Home Buying Institute, 2023).

As for pricing trends, homes in Dallas sold for 100.1% of their list price in January 2023, with the median number of days on the market dropping 35.7% from 42 days in January 2021 to 27 days in January 2023. This indicates a strong seller's market with high demand and quick sales (WFAA, 2023).

Conclusion

Dallas, Texas, emerges as a region marked by robust real estate growth, declining crime rates, a resilient and expanding economy, and significant demographic changes. The identified ZIP codes are poised to sustain their upward trajectory in popularity and price. The city's strategic approach to crime reduction appears effective, contributing to the overall optimistic economic outlook, supported by substantial development plans. The demographic shifts point towards a diverse and growing population, enhancing the region's vibrancy and economic vitality.

As a dynamic and rapidly growing economic hub, Dallas stands out, propelled by strategic business incentives, robust job growth, and the presence of major employers and innovative new businesses. The city's economic incentives have successfully attracted significant corporate relocations and expansions, fostering a vibrant job market and a competitive business environment. Dallas is well-positioned to retain its status as a leading city for economic opportunity and real estate development with continued investment and development.

The real estate market in Dallas is undergoing dynamic growth and transformation, with large-scale development projects reshaping the city's skyline and offering new living and working opportunities. The construction sector remains robust, with new communities and builders contributing to a diverse and upscale housing inventory. Despite fluctuations in inventory levels and the challenges of a competitive market, the demand for housing in Dallas remains strong. Sales and pricing trends reflect a healthy real estate environment, showcasing the resilience and attractiveness of the Dallas real estate market.

To see more Dallas neighborhoods, click here

References

DMagazine. (2023). Five of the State’s ZIP Codes With Largest Home Price Increases Are In Dallas. Link
Dallas Innovates. (2023). Report: North Texas Had 3 of 2023’s Hottest ZIP Codes for Home Buyers. Link
DPD Beat. (2024). The Dallas Police Department announces overall violent crime decreases more than 13% in 2023. Link
Dallas News. (2023). Mixed signals: Texas economy exists in two realities heading into 2024. Link
World Population Review. (2023). Dallas, TX Population. Link
Dallas News. (2021, November 11). Dallas approves millions in economic incentives for new CBRE tower and jobs. Link
The Real Deal. (2022, June 27). Four upcoming projects set to change Dallas skyline development. Link
Dallas Economic Development. (2023, January 25). Programs Overview. Link
Intown Plumbing TX. (2024). Tax Incentives in Dallas: A Comprehensive Guide for Businesses. Link
NBC DFW. (2024, January 1). New year, new growth: DFW got 2nd-most new jobs in the country in 2023, economists looking ahead to 2024. Link
Dallas Fed. (2023, February). DFW Economic Indicators. Link
Dallas News. (2024, January 4). Dallas crowned king for most job gains with 600,000 new positions in last five years. Link
Dallas Innovates. (2023). Texas launches credit initiative to aid small businesses. Link
The Real Deal. (2022, June 27). Four upcoming projects set to change Dallas’ skyline development. Link
Dallas Innovates. (2022). Eye on the future: Planned developments keep DFW on the forefront of industry and livability. Link
Dallas News. (2024, January 8). Dallas-Fort Worth home builders push the accelerator pedal on new housing starts. Link
Home Buying Institute. (2023). Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Forecast 2023 – 2024. Link
WFAA. (2023). Real estate housing inventory in Dallas area sinks from bad to worse; homes getting upwards of 50 offers. Link